Posted by Roland at February 9th, 2008

 Every year for Lindy’s Pro Basketball Annual, I have to try to guess in August how teams are going to finish the next April. Given the difficulty of that, trying to do the same thing in February is a piece of cake. So maybe that’s why I’m a little reckless in my predictions. Oh, well, feel free to raise hell. 

Eastern Conference

 1.  Boston Celtics. The big surprise with Boston is not that they score so well (99 points per game), it’s that they defend so well. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and company lead the league by outscoring their opponents better than 11 points per game. Of course, that’s because they play in the Eastern Conference, where there are so many weak and unorganized teams. Still, the Celtics have dominated several Western Conference teams defensively, so the Green will be a force in the playoffs and a favorite to get to the league championship series. Kevin Garnett’s injuries are a concern, and the playoffs are a different thing altogether, but there’s no reason Boston shouldn’t close the regular season at the top.

2.  Detroit Pistons. Why is there no surprise that things have not dropped off much here? They may change coaches and they may lose a player or two, but the core of the Pistons hasn’t changed. Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace still do what they do, which is defend with a crunch and move through their deliberate offense. This consistency makes them a playoff machine, and their experience together in playoff situations makes them the true threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. They are second in the league in defense, giving up only 90 points per game. Again, those figures are better because they’re in the East. But their reputation is secure.

3.  Orlando Magic. These guys are a nice surprise in the Eastern Conference. Everyone knew that Dwight Howard was a beast on the rise, and it was an easy guess that Rashard Lewis was going to come in from Seattle and fit in like the veteran tough guy forward that he is. But Hedo Turkoglu having a career year? And averaging better than 19 points per game? Then there’s pickup Maurice Evans, who came in that trade with the Lakers, who has fit in and added substantially to the depth. Even so, the Magic’s fortunes sort of hang in the balance. Are they going to close strong? Or are they beginning the slightest fade? Their early problems have involved working out the details of a newly assembled team, including coach Stan Van Gundy. But February came with the Magic still holding their position. And that seems steady enough in the East.

4.  Cleveland Cavaliers. Obviously, LeBron James and company got off to a rocky start before improving to become a pretty good defensive team. The problem remains their offense. The Cavaliers just don’t score enough points and seem to have trouble finding the complementary scorers to go with James, who is rapidly pushing Kobe Bryant’s status as the best player in the game. As of early February, however, the Cavaliers were still not scoring as many points per game as they gave up defensively. They were scoring 96.9 and giving up 97.5 per game. Those are not the statistics you find on teams ready to do big things in the playoffs.

5.  Toronto Raptors. OK, we all know this is a team on the rise. Question is, how long can you make book on that status? Eventually, you have to pay off on that promise and lay down some big cards. The Raptors are very talented and still very young. Some nights they get their feelings hurt. But you can see signs of emerging toughness. For example, through the first half of the season, they were allowing opponents only 95.7 points per game. Again, they play in the weak Eastern Conference, and the teams out West seem to enjoy beating up on them. But make no mistake, the Raptors are rapidly improving. Their status in the world is changing. Are they ready to do major playoff damage? Probably not yet. But their day is coming.

6.  Atlanta Hawks. Talk about a culture, you have to admire the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve been patient and built their team for the most part through the draft. They haven’t gotten crazy and fired their coaches. Instead, they’ve let them coach. And now the league is starting to worry. The Hawks are young, incredibly athletic, very talented and fighting to rid themselves of inconsistency. Plus they have an All Star in Joe Johnson. The big sign? Their defense gives up just 95.8 points per game. But the payoff is watching them on offense. Go to a Hawks game and you’re going to see an amazing array of dunks and crowd-goosing plays. Whoever faces Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Al Horford is going to have their hands full.

7. New Jersy Nets. No, the offers coming in for Jason Kidd just before the All Star Game weren’t very impressive. So it could well mean that he stays put with a team that has underperformed much of the season. The odds are that Vince Carter, Kidd, Richard Jefferson and company won’t continue down that path. If Kidd isn’t traded, the atmosphere will likely clear and they’ll set about the business of making the playoffs and maybe even doing a little damage to higher seeded opponents. After all, this is a club that has been to the NBA Finals. Twice. If the trade winds stop blowing and Carter finds his focus, they could still make something of the season.

8.   Chicago Bulls. OK, that’s purely a guess. Take your pick. It’s so hard to read the bottom half of the Eastern Conference. A lot of teams in turmoil and transition. Will the Nets trade Jason Kidd? Do the Washington Wizards have brains? Do the Pacers have any grit? A lot of NBA executives like what the Charlotte Bobcats have done. Gerald Wallace and Jason Richardson are 20 point per game stars backed by a cast of feisty and determined role players. It’s taken a while for the Bobcats to find their footing. But a lot of people see them as capable of gaining ground among the second tier teams in the East. Problem is, they’ve already lost 30+ games, so they would have to snap out it quickly. Certainly don’t count out Washington or Indiana or Philadelphia or Milwaukee. Or even New York for that matter. (Oh, what the hell, go ahead and count out New York.) As Nets coach Lawrence Frank said, it’s all going to come down to the very end to see who makes it.

 

Western Conference

1.  Los Angeles Lakers. Pau Gasol? It almost seems unfair, unless you’re a Lakers fan. As Lakers triangle guru Tex Winter explained, Gasol gives Kobe Bryant an inside scorer to work with. When that happens, big things occur in Lakers land. (See Shaq and Kobe, 2000-2002). Andrew Bynum showed the power of that equation until he suffered a January knee injury. When he returns to join Gasol in the frontcourt in March/April, the Lakers will have too many weapons. This is a team built for the playoffs. Playing with Bynum, Bryant showed how deadly he was as a playmaker. Now, with Gasol, that’s only going to grow.

2.   San Antonio. The statistics say the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons are the best defensive teams in the league. But they operate in the Eastern Conference. The Spurs are still the NBA’s best defensive group, giving up just 91.5 points per game out in the high scoring West. They’ve been troubled by injuries, but they still execute very well in the halfcourt, and they remain the favorite to win another league championship once June rolls around. And they have motivation. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli weren’t even picked for the All-Star game? Talk about silliness. These guys have the memory of success, which is a big step toward making it a reality again.

3.  Phoenix. If the back end of the Eastern Conference is confusing to pick, the top end of the Western Conference is impossible. Phoenix, San Antonio, the Lakers, New Orleans and Dallas are all within two losses of each other. The Suns were at the top until they traded for Shaquille O’Neal. They still may finish first simply because they have the fewest road games left (15) by early February. There’s also the factor that the Suns have been excelling in the regular season for a while now. Yes, the loss of Shawn Marion will slow that progress. It will take time to integrate Shaq and to feel comfortable in the halfcourt. I say the move will hurt them a bit in the regular season finish, but they’re taking a calculated risk that it will improve their playoff performance. The Suns want to win a title, so they’ve taken a gamble to abandon their up-tempo style to add a halfcourt option for the playoffs. We won’t know till then what Shaq really has left in the tank. Meanwhile, their wide-open style remains a problem for opponents over the course of a grueling schedule. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire  remain an impressive core.  They outscore their opponents by nearly six points per game.

4.  Dallas Mavericks. The one hot option for New Jersey trading Jason Kidd was the Mavericks. If they put together a deal and send Kidd to Dallas, this rating could jump. Meanwhile, the Mavs have long shown they know how to play. They’re outscoring opponents by almost five a game this season while giving up just 96 points a game. The only thing hurting these guys in the regular schedule is their road record. It’s not terrible, at an even .500, but to rise much higher, and to prosper in the postseason, they have to show us something better. Critics say it’s about mental toughness, which remains the Mavs’ big question since they folded in the 2006 Finals.

5.  Utah Jazz. What is it with all these outstanding young guards in the West? Deron Williams is “the shit” as they say in the American street vernacular, and he didn’t get a sniff for the All Star team? Talk about motivation. These guys headed into the break playing lights out. Yet they also had a huge losing streak right in the middle of the schedule. Which Jazz team will show up down the stretch? That inconsistency is the only reason they’re not ranked higher here. But make no mistake, these guys went to the conference finals last year and there’s no one saying they’re not firing up the playoff express again this time around.

6.   New Orleans Hornets. Chris Paul, stand up and take a bow. With the way you’ve played, there are already lots of MVP votes with your name on them. And coach Byron Scott, you take a bow, too. The Hornets are a good defensive club. Your road record is even better than your home record, which indicates that it’s hard playing in a city still recovering from devastation. Still, for all your progress, it says here you’re a year away, that the other top teams in the West will charge at you down the stretch. But with Chris Paul, it really won’t matter. The Hornets will be a very dangerous seed in the West. Nobody will want them in the first round, no matter where they finish.

7.  Golden State Warriors. This doesn’t get any easier as we go down the list in the West. Houston, Sacramento, Portland, Golden State and Denver are all right there, and any one of them could do it. The guess here is the Warriors. They’ve already played 26 road games, so their schedule is a bit easier down the stretch. Plus they delivered a surprise last year. When he’s healthy, there’s nobody better than Baron Davis. He’s bankable. And we’re banking on him. There’s a solid cast with him with Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, plus the addition of Chris Webber. Oh yeah. They’re coached by Don Nelson. He’s one of the best, and he’ll deliver another playoff team.

8.   Houston Rockets. I wanted to pick the Blazers here. They’re a nice story for the first half of the season, but they seem to finally have glimpsed reality. Meanwhile, the Rockets are winning road games and showing real strength in February. Yes, Houston must deal with Tracy McGrady’s injuries. Denver and Sacramento have been hurt by injuries as well. All three — Houston, Denver, and Sacramento — have the veteran stars to make it to the playoffs. Houston and Denver have coaches known for doing just that. What the heck, you have to pick somebody. The Rockets can defend and execute well in the halfcourt at the other end. Hard to count out Denver, but they haven’t played well on the road. So I ain’t buyin’ that. Rick Adelman knows how to deliver a playoff team, and he has the pieces in place. Anyway, that’s how I see it in February. As they say in the country song, “That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.” For at least a week.

 Roland Lazenby is the editor of Lindy’s Pro Basketball Annual. He is also the author of numerous NBA books. His Phil Jackson biography, Mindgames, has recently been re-released in a special edition by the University of Nebraska Press.